Platinum perspective | Platinum demand in the automotive field is growing

The alternative and higher platinum capacity on the catalyst will promote strong growth in demand. At the same time, the growth of fuel cell vehicles slowly supplement platinum demand. Platinum demand in the automotive field accounts for about 40 % of the total demand, so the prospect of the automotive industry is the key to the fundamental aspect of platinum supply and demand. Some viewpoints in the market predict that internal combustion engines are about to die, and the demand for platinum in the future may decline. These judgments also seriously affect investors' emotions for platinum. In fact, although we believe that 2017 will be the peak of the sales of internal combustion engines (ICE) automobiles, our analysis also strongly indicates that platinum demand in the automotive field will continue to grow.

Text | Deng Weibin, the person in charge of the Asia -Pacific District of the World Platinum Investment Association

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

In view of the importance of the prospects of the automotive transmission system for the overall demand of platinum, our prediction of this theme is extended to 2040, far exceeding the supply and demand forecast for 2026.

To sum up our predictions on the prospects of the automotive transmission system, the electrification trend of the automotive industry will continue, but we believe that not all vehicle types or regions are suitable for battery electrification. Therefore, despite the decline in sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, it is expected to be the core component of the prospect of the transmission system. The impact of the decline in the sales of internal combustion engine on platinum will be offset more stringent discharge standards, including continuously increasing the degree of hybrid power to improve carbon efficiency.

Given that the carbon emissions of diesel vehicles are 20 % lower than that of gasoline vehicles at the same level, and the nitrogen oxide emissions of new diesel vehicles have been solved by modern catalytic converters combined with actual driving exhaust emissions tests, we may see the return of diesel vehicles to the return of diesel vehicles Essence

Although the output of internal combustion engines is expected to decline from 2024, the prospect of platinum demand in the automotive field has exceeded many people's expectations and shows positive growth. This is mainly due to the replacement of platinum tadpoles in gasoline cars catalytic converters, and in order to meet stricter emission standards, it improves the platinum load in the car catalyst. We have always been conservative to the number of platinum mullets, and the prediction prediction of platinum mirror in 2024 is about half of the predictions of other industry participants (such as the Sparey-Jingshui Company). If it matches its prediction, our demand for the year will increase 750,000 ounces.

In addition to the increase in demand for internal combustion engine cars catalytic converters, we also predict that the application penetration rate of fuel cell vehicles will continue to increase.

We only considers the increase in platinum demand in a single policy -driven scenario from 2023 to 2026. Among them, government incentives are the key factor in the popularization of fuel cell vehicles. The fuel cell vehicle report we posted also considers a faster wideized commercial application scenario. In this scene, the cheap hydrogen and scale output economy will increase the cost competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles compared to other transmission system technology.

Summarizing the prospects of platinum demand in the automotive field, we predict that the demand for platinum for catalytic transformers will reach the peak of 3.819 million ounces in 2028, and it is expected to be 3.055 million ounces in 2022. Coupled with the slow growth of platinum demand for the sales of slow -growing fuel cell vehicles, it is estimated that the platinum demand in the automotive field in 2028 will exceed 4.7 million ounces, 60 % higher than the demand for car platinum predicted in 2022.

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