Daily discussion of gold | Weak dollar, whether international gold prices ushered in opportunities

Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Lu Jun

In the past two trading days this week, the international gold price has maintained a low oscillation operation as a whole, and the weak pattern seems to be unchanged. However, the market seems to be changing quietly, especially after the Federal Reserve's internal officials have recently stated their interest rate hikes in July. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the US Department of Labor reached 9.1%, while stunning the market, it also ignited the market's expectations of 100 basis points in the Fed in July. However, as the Fed's internal officials collectively faded 100 basis points, the market also began to move to the European Central Bank's first operation.

This week will usher in the first interest rate hike operation of the European Central Bank since 2010. The current market will still raise 25 basis points or 50 basis points in the pre -judgment variety. However, the inflation data in the euro zone has continued to rise recently, and there is still the power to continue to rise, which may force the European Central Bank to take more aggressive measures. And this week the euro/USD exchange rate has shown a strong recovery, which seems to be expected to go to 50 basis points.

The author believes that even if the European Central Bank raises 25 basis points, the recovery of the euro/dollar will be opened. Because after the Federal Reserve officials dilute 100 basis interest rate hikes, it can basically predict that the Fed's interest rate hike limit is 75 basis points, so the intensity of interest rate hikes will also weaken, which will undoubtedly give the US dollar strong strength. Splash a pot of cold water. In addition, with the opening of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike operation, the continuous weakness of the euro will be corrected. The European Union index is more than 57%of the euro index. The trend of the euro and the US dollar is reversed. As a result, as the euro recovery road is opened, the adjustment of the US dollar index will also begin, which will change the overall pattern of the market.

As the US dollar index falls high, international gold prices will form a significant support effect. The international gold price was quickly recovered after breaking the $ 1,700/ounce last week. It is currently maintained at a pattern of $ 1700/ounce, and the short -term oscillating pattern may continue to be maintained. Follow the oscillating operation in the area of ​​$ 1700 to 1720/ounce.

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