Tangshan house prices fall into the bottom?

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Jia Xuan

Once a set of "old breaking and small" sells for more than one million, now the number of second -hand housing is gradually increasing, but it is not sold. The new house is difficult ... such a dramatic mutation is happening in the property market in Tangshan, Hebei.

Recently, "Tangshan's house prices fell into the bottom of the valley" once rushed to the hot search, and people once again gathered their attention to this third -tier city. From 2020 for many consecutive months, house prices have led the country, and even have been interviewed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development because of the rise in house prices too quickly, to today's continuous decline and investors to escape. What happened to the Tangshan property market? Do the locals think house prices have dropped?

From "leading the country" to "overnight winter"

Tangshan is adjacent to Beijing -Tianjin, and its rich mineral resources are contained in the city's "industrial city". In 2021, Tangshan realized the regional GDP of 82306 billion yuan, ranking first in Hebei Province, ranking among the top 30 nationwide. Its total GDP is even more than the total amount of GDP in a province of Hainan (about 647.52 billion yuan). Since 2004, Tangshan GDP has surpassed the city of Shijiazhuang, the city of Hebei Province, and has ranked first in Hebei for more than ten consecutive years.

Compared with the economy, Tangshan's property market has developed more dramatic.

In 2003, Beijing Shougang decided to move to Cao Feidian, Tangshan. With this opportunity, the local area tried to use the project to create a economic town integrating four major industries, and the planned population exceeded 1 million.

In 2015, Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei integrated was officially landed, and Hebei focused on creating the "Capital Economic Circle". Anjuke data shows that at that time, the average price of Beijing's new houses was 24,317 yuan/square meter, and Tianjin was 10,795 yuan/square meter, while Tangshan had just broken 5,000 yuan/square meter, which can be described as "price depression" in the region of Beijing.

In 2016, after the "September 30" regulation policy in Beijing, Tianjin's house prices were stimulated by this stimulus. Later, Tianjin restricted purchases, and a large number of Beijing and Huanjing intermediaries put their attention to Tangshan. With the relatively loose regulation and the relatively convenient transportation such as the Beijing -Tang Dynasty intercity railway, Tangshan has become the favorite place for many Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei investors, and the price of the property market has been suddenly pushed up. The property market inventory that has been accumulated for several years has also been basically digested in a short time.

"I remember the particularly popular 'viewing group' at the time. Catch the weekend and holidays. The reporter recalled. What makes him most memories is that the volume of the speculation group is extremely high. The case will place a huge electronic screen next to the sand table. Each set of houses will be sold in real time, and the red signing information will be updated in real time. The remaining sets make people feel excited and exciting.

In order to curb this situation, starting in April 2017, Tangshan has launched a purchase restriction policy one after another, which clearly requires that the purchase of houses in the central urban area must provide a tax certificate of more than one year. And the house of the central urban area cannot exceed one set; the first set of down payment for the provident fund loan is 30%.

The purchase restriction stopped the footsteps of the speculators from other places, but most of the property market inventory has been consumed, and Tangshan's house prices remain rising. For a period of time in 2020, Tangshan's house prices have been at the forefront of the country.

According to the 70 large and medium -sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price indexes of Tangshan's new house sales index increased from May to July that year to 15%, 15.3%, and 16.1%, respectively. In August, Tangshan's house prices led the country. The sales price index of new houses rose 15.4%year -on -year, and second -hand housing rose 14.6%year -on -year, and continued the previous rise.

In addition, in the first half of 2020, the Tangshan Turkish market was also frequently produced. On May 8th of that year, Rongsheng won a land of Phoenix New Town for 485 million yuan, with a premium rate of 43.25%, and the floor price reached 14010 yuan/square meter, becoming the new "king of the earth" in Tangshan. In just a month, a 70572.05 square meter plot was sold at the north side of the Tangshan Financial Center. Long Kitai and the premium rate of 3.4.45%, and the floor price of about 16,000 yuan/square meter renovated the Tangshan "Di King" record.

On September 28, 2020, Tangshan urgently regulated after being interviewed by the Ministry of Housing and Construction, and issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Regulation of Real Estate Market", stating that it is necessary Wait. After that, the large cycle of the property market was overwhelmed, and Tangshan's house prices reached winter overnight.

Localist: Most of the price reductions are high -priced houses

In August 2021, the Tangshan Municipal Government had interviewed 10 relevant person in charge of real estate companies such as China Resources, China Shipping, and Vanke because of the housing enterprises and asked them not to reduce the price maliciously, otherwise it would not be signed online.

According to the data of Anjuke Huihuan, since October 2020, Tangshan's house prices have dropped by 8.4%.

"Recently, I have been screened by the intermediary. Each title in the circle of friends is" picking the leakage '' '' -'word. It feels like a drink and selling vegetables. "Mao Lion, the" post -90s "boy who was ready to be in Tangshan, told reporters. He used to see a huge billboard hanging on a real estate on the streets of Tangshan, saying "Never reduce the price", but I don't know when the brand is quiet. To this day, no one lives in the building.

On July 5 this year, the Tangshan Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced the launch of the "one -person house gang" policy. According to reports, there are three major "gold points" in this policy: first, help to solve the housing demand of new citizens, youth groups, and neighboring retirees; the second is to increase the amount of housing provident fund loans; the third is to wake up "sleep funds" and the family will be the family, and the family will be the family. The "dark supplement" becomes a "Mingbu" that uses the housing provident fund. And this is only one of the many property market stimulus policies released by Tangshan this year. Earlier, Tangshan issued a number of policies involving the cancellation of the purchase restrictions on the purchase of commercial housing, adjusting the provident fund loan, and adjusting the commercial loan of the house purchase.

After the operation, the Tangshan property market is still declining. Song Qiao told reporters that in the fourth week of June 2022, the listed price of second -hand housing in the Tangshan property market fell from 9,850 yuan per square meter to 9,835 yuan, down 15 yuan within a week, and continued to fall.

Nevertheless, Song Qiao, like many of his customers, still can't afford the ideal house. "Customers generally reflect that Tangshan house prices cannot be considered low. Now they say that Tangshan house prices have fallen to the bottom. In fact, the price reduction is high -priced houses, and many total prices are more than one million. Tens of thousands of dollars. Just like Maserati for sale, calculated by Tangshan's universal income, those who can't afford it can still be bought. "

Song Qiao said that due to the yin of house prices for several months, some customers in their hands also stopped the transaction and were ready to wait and see for a while. Now I ’m using my daily working hours to see, and there is almost no transaction. "One customer took two months, and finally decided to go to Guangdong to buy a house at the same price. The reason he gave was‘ considering the long -term development of the city ’.”

Song Qiao also simply suggested that customers, "You can buy it later, it is estimated that it can save some." His basis is the supply performance of Tangshan's new house in May.

According to data from the middle finger research institute, from January to May 2022, a total of 953,300 square meters of new houses were sold in Tangshan's main urban area, a year -on -year decrease of 18%, and the transaction scale was still low in the same period in the past three years. In May, the average price of new commercial housing in Tangshan was 8606 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.42%month -on -month. The average transaction price of new houses was still in the decline in the short term. In terms of second -hand housing, the average transaction price of second -hand housing in Tangshan City in May was 11027 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.84%month -on -month. From January 2021, the average transaction price fell from the previous month and fell by 6.65%year -on -year. One percentage point. Data from Tangshan World Federation shows that as of May, the exfoliating cycle of effective inventory in Tangshan's main urban area is as high as 71.01 months, and the house will not be sold for nearly 6 years.

According to Song Qiao's observation, the number of investors who commissioned him to sell second -hand houses have gradually increased. Most of them were purchased as early as 2017, and the price was low, and now it is still profitable for sale. Most homeowners also said that if the full payment is paid, the total price of the house can be given appropriately.

In addition, there are more and more houses on the market, but the population in the city is getting less and less. Data show that as of the end of 2021, Tangshan City's permanent population was 7.697 million, a decrease of 21,500 from the end of the previous year. It is one of the top 30 cities in the country with a negative growth of the country. How to retain talents and become a must -answer question for Tangshan development test papers.

Song Qiao lamented that as a native of Tangshan, there were more and more friends who left their hometown and lived. Since the beginning of this year, he has also had the idea of ​​sending the child out. But in the end, it was still nostalgic for the big family and the love of the city.

(The requirements of the interview object, the text is a pseudonym)

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly", No. 13, 2022)

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