Expert: LPR quotation in July remains unchanged, and LPR reduction of more than 5 years is still expected

MLF is constant and the net interest difference between banks and banks, in July LPR quotation remains unchanged

The quotes of LPR and more than 5 -year LPRs in July 1st remained unchanged. The main reason is that on the one hand, on July 15, the central bank and other amounts continued to do 100 billion yuan for a one -year MLF, and the bid interest rate was 2.85%, which remained unchanged. LPR interest rates are linked to MLF. Under the background of MLF interest rates, the foundation of LPR quotation in July has not changed. On the other hand, since the second quarter, under the dual squeezing of supply and demand, the two -ends of the deposit and loan, the downward pressure of the bank's net interest margin has further increased, and the power of LPR quotes in the short term is not strong.

Under the impact of internal and external factors, the MLF operating interest rate this month has not been adjusted

In July, MLF's operating interest rate was the same as last month, and it has remained unchanged for six consecutive months.

From the perspective, the first is to implement the implementation of a policy of a stable economy, and the economic restoration has accelerated. In June, the credit agency fed the dual innovation high, and the monetary policy will be temporarily at a period of effect observation. On July 12, the economic situation experts and entrepreneurial symposium pointed out "To maintain the continuity of macro policies, it is necessary to be strong, especially to increase the implementation of a policies for stability of the economy. The implementation time of policies is only more than a month, and there is considerable room for implementation. It is necessary to continue to promote the implementation of the policy and the effect. " In addition to the tools, promote the implementation of various structural policy tools and become the main focus of policy. The second is that the domestic CPI enters the raising channel year -on -year, the weight of the price has increased, and the interest rate cut is constrained. my country ’s CPI in June rose 2.5%year -on -year, surpassing upward, and the pressure of pork prices and the pressure of external input inflation will not be reduced. In the second half of the year, CPIs will still be moderate, and they may exceed 3%in individual months. In the past car in the United States, under the viscosity of price, high inflation is difficult to fall, and my country's monetary policy will increase the weight of inflation. To this end, the central bank proposed at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Commission in the second quarter, "under the favorable conditions of domestic food stable production and the stable operation of the energy market, maintaining the level of price is basically stable", and stable prices have become one of the focus of the current central bank's work. In addition, at the first half of the financial statistics on July 13th, it also proposed that "the central bank will comprehensively consider the fundamental conditions such as economic growth and the situation of price, and reasonably match monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable liquidity and abundance, further further Promote financial institutions to reduce corporate financing costs, and to consolidate the economy to recover the appropriate monetary financial environment. "

From the outside, the US inflation data continues to be high, the currency tightening process is accelerated, and the stable domestic monetary policy helps to take into account both internal and external balance. The United States CPI in June rose 9.1%year -on -year, reaching another 40 years since December 1981; the quarterly increased by 1.3%month -on -month, the highest level since October 2005, and energy, food and housing items have become important driving factor. Under the "explosion" of inflation again, the Federal Reserve accelerated the expectation of tightening monetary policy to further heat up, and the probability of the market expected to raise interest rates at 100 base points on the day rose rapidly. The subsequent announcement of the University of Michigan's inflation expectations in July (1 -year inflation is expected to drop from 5.3%to 5.2%, 5 -year inflation is expected to drop from 3.1%in June to 2.8%), and the Federal Reserve Eagle Piece vote recently The impact of the commission's 100 basis interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve's expected expectations of radical interest rate hikes this month decreased, but the probability of significantly interest rate hikes 75 basis points is still high. The Fed's rapid tightening of monetary policy and global entry into a currency tightening cycle will trigger the risk of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation. The spread of China and the United States has compressed the loose space of my country's monetary policy to a certain extent. Under the consideration of "internal and external balance", maintaining stability of policy interest rates is the optimal choice.

Under the increasing supply and demand imbalance and deposits, the degradation of bank interest deviation reduction is narrowed

In recent years, the net interest difference between commercial banks has been in a downward channel. According to data from the CBRC, at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.97%, a decrease of below 2%, and a downward 11bp from the end of 2021. Since the second quarter, under the effect of increasing the contradiction between credit supply and demand, increasing deposits, and lowering the interest rate of the first home loan loan and significantly lowered LPR quotation above 5 years, the interest rate of new enterprise loans and mortgage loans is large. The decline in deposit interest rates is lower than the loan interest rate, and the net interest margin of commercial banks is expected to show a downward trend.

The latest data from the central bank shows that the interest rate of the new corporate loan in June was 4.16%, which continued to decrease by 20bp from the end of March, which was 34bp lower than the same period last year, a record low in history. During the same period, under the supervision of the central bank's continuous optimization of the policy interest rate system and strengthening deposit interest rates, the newly absorbing time deposit interest rate in June was 2.5%, which was 16bp lower than the same period last year. Under the reform of the marketization of deposit interest rates, although the cost of bank deposits has declined significantly, in the context of imbalances in supply and demand and regularization of deposits, the decline in deposit interest rates is still lower than the loan interest rate, which is squeezed on interest margins. From the perspective of mortgage interest rates, the data of Shell Research Institute shows that the 103 key cities monitored in June 2022 was 4.42%, and the two sets of interest rates were 5.09%, which fell 49 or 23 basis points from the previous month, and then created a set. New low since 2019. Among them, 56%of the city's first set and two sets of mortgages have dropped to the lower limit, which means that the interest rate of nearly 58 cities has fallen to 4.25%, and the two sets of interest rates will be reduced to 5.05%. Under the complex internal and external economic environment, the interest deviation pressure faced by banks has increased, and the LPR power is insufficient in the short term. The probability of LPR reduction in the next one year is low, and the 5 -year LPR reduction will still exist in space

At present, the newly issued corporate loan interest rate has reached a record low, and the interest rate of mortgage and retail loans has decreased greater. The downside of various structural monetary policy instruments and the downward loan interest rates have stimulated the effect of stimulating financing needs to a certain extent. However, if the subsequent economic recovery is not as good as expected, the repair of consumption and investment is weak, the future LPR interest rate may still have room to reduce, and the probability of 5 -year LPR decline is greater.

From the perspective of the 1 -year LPR quotation, the current level of 3.7%is low. Low, even the price of partial deposits is formed. In this case, if you continue to guide the 1 -year LPR reduction, it is easy to exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise and deviate from the original intention of the policy.

From the perspective of the 5 -year LPR quotation, the decline in the early 15bp is beyond expectations, driving the sales of real estate sales; considering that the decline in real estate and the stable growth pressure is still large, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years may still be stable at the MLF interest rate stability. At the same time, it is moderately lowered.

First, the current mortgage launch is still weak, and it is necessary to stimulate the interest rate and relaxation policy. Financial data show that in June, residents' medium- and long -term loans increased by 416.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 312 billion yuan from the previous month, and a year -on -year increase of 98.9 billion yuan. According to the data disclosed by the CBRC, real estate loans were added 158.4 billion yuan in June, of which real estate development loans were added 41.5 billion yuan, that is, the new scale of mortgage loans was around 116.9 billion yuan, which was still rarely increased year -on -year. The low mortgage loans and the high growth of residential business loans. On the one hand, the expectations of residents' expectations are still weak. On the other hand, there are still some intermediary agencies in arbitrage space. High mortgage loans are replaced, and it will promote illegal business loans to invest in the property market. To this end, based on the consideration of stabilizing real estate sales and crackdown on arbitrage, subsequent newly issued mortgage loan interest rates do not rule out further downward. In the early stage, some hot cities with high mortgage loan interest rates and third- and fourth -tier cities are expected to further reduce.

Second, the incidents of “suspending loans and breaking” in many places may affect real estate restoration process recently. The superposition consumption repair and global economic recession expectations will decline under the growth rate of my country's exports, and the economic rebound in the second half of the year will be milder. In order to restore market confidence and realize the stability of the demand side of the house, stabilize real estate, stabilize investment, stabilize employment, and grow steadily. Monetary policy still requires a supporting financial environment. LPR may still have asymmetric low -reduction space.

(Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, Zhang Liyun, Director of the Financial Market Research Center of Minsheng Bank Research Institute)

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