The gold market repeats the bear market?Gold price or fall back to this price

From January 2013 to December 2015, the Fed's monetary policy began to tighten from wide to tightening, and began to raise interest rates. Gold prices have gone through a bear market for 3 years. The price of gold once fell from $ 1680/ounce to nearly $ 1050/ounce, down nearly $ 630, which is the recent bear market market. "Chinese aunt" became famous in April 2013 due to a brave and bottom -war Wall Street giants, so he drank the bitter wine of the quilt for 3 years. Following the wind, the history of the market may continue to repeat.

Macro Trend Research (Month Line)

Text | Independent Analyst Lu Chao

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

In March 2022, the Fed's monetary policy turned from unlimited loose direction and tightened, and quickly entered the interest rate hike period. In March and May, 50 basis points raised interest rates. By May, 75 basis points were further raised. The rate of interest rate hikes was far beyond imagination. The emotional of the gold market was rapidly educating from the enthusiasm inspired by the situation in Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the year.

Gold prices have fallen straight from the peak of 2070 US dollars per ounce in March. At present, it has fallen for a new low point within the year of the year.

As a special product and special market, gold has a very complicated and multi -level influencing factors. However, in the context of the world's currency system -based world currency system, the operation of gold prices depends to a large extent on the monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve. The historical market and laws of over the past 50 years have proven that under the cycle of the Federal Reserve's currency policy, coupled with factors such as war, economic crisis, inflation, etc., gold prices often get out of the bull market. Once the Fed's monetary policy turns to the cycle of tightening and interest rate hikes, the price of gold is often caught in a bear market and oscillation pattern.

The current global economic cycle is forced to rapidly raise interest rates after the Federal Reserve ’s unlimited relaxation was caused by the last unlimited loose.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States rose 1.3 % month -on -month and 9.1 % year -on -year, which is much higher than market expectations, and once again refreshed the highest record in 40 years. Data released on July 14 showed that the US PPI in June increased by 7.3 % year -on -year, far exceeding expectations, and set the highest record since 1982. This indicates that the Fed is difficult to stop the pace of interest rate hikes, and it may need to further increase tightening to achieve the goal of controlling inflation. In this context, compared with the trend of the gold market bear market from 2013 to 2015, it has only fallen to the mountainside.

From the perspective of the analysis of the medium -term technical form, a double -top form appears in the case of three consecutive months of K -line decline. The first is that the upward trend since October 2018 has fallen below and has been away for two consecutive months. It proves that the mid -term rising trend has been broken and the trend announces the end. Second, the August 2020 high of 2072 US dollars/ounces and March 2022 highs 2070 US dollars/ounce, which constitutes a classic double peak. Now that the support areas of densely oscillated support have been dropped in the past two years, only 1680 US dollars/ounce low support has been broken in the two years. The head shape of the mid -term double top has been completed by 90 %, and only a short blow to be broken, which triggers the collapse to confirm the formation of the head shape.

Since the Fed's unlimited easing policy has ended, the market for the global financial crisis caused by the global financial crisis caused by the Federal Reserve in 2008 is also because the price of the Federal Reserve has fell back to the price level before the Federal Reserve launched the quantitative easing policy at the end of 2009. Then at this round of short markets, the price of gold must be at least back to nearly $ 1,450/ounce before the epidemic in April 2020.

On July 28, the market will usher in the Federal Reserve's July interest -bearing meeting. Various financial instruments predict the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates by more than 90 %. In this context, there are any reasons because the price of gold has fallen a little, so I started to obey all kinds of merchants to encourage various merchants and go to the bottom of gold? Advise "Chinese aunts" long memory, and do not repeat the mistakes of history.

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