Shanghai's GDP in the first half of the year fell 5.7%: the impact was unprecedented before, and rebounded quickly in June

On the 18th, the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data. In the first half of the year, the city's GDP was 1934.9 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 5.7%.

Challenge unprecedented

The decline in economic growth in the first half of the year is both expected and expected.

Unexpectedly, from the perspective of the country, the majority of GDP in various regions in the first half of the year remained increased, and it was only individual. From the perspective of the development of Shanghai, it has maintained a relatively stable positive growth in the past years. The negative growth has only been in the first half of 2020, a decrease of 2.6%, which is significantly less than 5.7%of the time.

In unexpectedly, as we all know, in the second quarter of this year, Shanghai suffered a serious impact on the epidemic. "Especially in the 4th and 5th months of static management, economic activities such as investment, consumption, import and export and other economic activities have been greatly limited. The negative economic growth in the first half of the year is foreseeable." Say.

In addition to the GDP that the public is most concerned about, several other major economic indicators also declined accordingly: Among them, the local public budget revenue decreased by 19.8%, the value -added of the secondary industry decreased by 13.7%, the total investment in fixed assets in the whole society dropped by 19.6%, society The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 16.1%.

Many economists use "unprecedented" to describe the challenges encountered in Shanghai's economy in the first half of this year.

The growth momentum is still there

These data are statistics on the economic operation of the past. We care about the data itself and the cause of it. In the first half of this year, the most important and direct cause of the economic growth of Shanghai is undoubtedly the epidemic of new crown pneumonia.

The impact of the epidemic on the economy has two characteristics: short -term and externality.

Let's talk about short -term. Generally speaking, the impact of epidemic on the economy, especially the concentrated and violent impact, is limited to a relatively short period. "The impact of this round of epidemic on Shanghai is mainly concentrated in 4 or 5 months. In June, although the impact of the epidemic has not been completely eliminated, the city has not fully recovered to the state before the epidemic, but the economic rebound has been strongly rebounded. The main economic indicators have significantly improved significantly. , Opened the road to resumption of revitalization. "Said Ma Haiqian, deputy dean of the Shanghai Development and Reform Research Institute.

In June, the value -added growth rate of industrial industries above designated size reached 13.9%, and the value of only one month ago was 30.9% -May to June, not only from negative to positive, but also increased by more than 40 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI, as an economic advance indicator, also rose from 32.1 in April to 67.4, indicating that Shanghai's manufacturing activities are accelerating recovery. From May to June, the total imports and exports changed from 14.1%to an increase of 9.6%, and experienced a V -shaped rebound like industry.

Besides externality. Ma Haiqian said: "The epidemic is an external disturbance factor. It is an exogenous variable and has not touched the Shanghai economic circulation system. This is a major premise. Although the epidemic has a large impact on the economy, the endogenous power and endogenous power of Shanghai's economic growth and the endogenous power and the endogenous power of the economic growth of Shanghai The momentum support is still there. "

The elements of long -term economic growth, such as material capital, human capital, natural resources, and technical knowledge have not changed significantly because of the epidemic. She believes that the long -term fundamental fundamentals of the Shanghai economy have not changed, and the general trend of high -quality development in Shanghai has not changed.

Faith is better than gold

Economy is an organic system. After a short -term and external shock, it will return to the original growth trend. The greater the impact, the stronger the rebound.

However, the rebound is not unconditional. Economists believe that in the current situation, confidence is crucial. Zhang Jun, the dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, said: "This year's more epidemic rebound has caused an impact on the economy. The external environment has also changed, and some short -term difficulties have occurred, but I think the most important thing is to maintain everyone's confidence in the economy of the economy. . Confidence in the economy is better than gold! "

The role of confidence is not difficult to understand: For the family, only if you believe that there is a continuous income in the future, you will be able to consume with confidence; for investors, only the projects he inspects have prospects to invest; for enterprises, only believe that the supply side is believed The demand side can be stable to formulate production plans. Judging from the private investment data in June, recovery is not ideal enough, indicating that market confidence has not been fully established.

Confidence comes from certainty, or reduction of uncertainty. The epidemic is a source of uncertainty, which requires us to respond to more certain epidemic prevention and control measures. During the closed -loop production in May, the person in charge of a automobile company told reporters that the manufacturing industry has a strong planning. If you don’t know when the road will be blocked, the upstream supplier will be blocked, and the plan cannot be determined, resulting in the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan, which will lead to the plan. It is difficult to sustain production and the cost is infinitely increased. Therefore, it is necessary to regain confidence and revive the economy.

Toughness derives from the market subject

The economy rebounded from the bottom of the valley, showing the toughness of development. The so -called toughness is the attribute of "constant". In April and May, the Shanghai economy was strongly impacted by the epidemic; since June, the momentum has quickly reversed, relying on development toughness.

Where does the toughness come from? There are more than 3 million large and small market entities from Shanghai. They are manufacturing factories, small shops, or well -known or unknown companies. Because they resume operation, the Shanghai economy was resolved. Shen Kaiyan believes that these market entities are the main support for steady growth, employment, and stable prices, and stabilize the basic economic market of market players. There are foundations and means to solve other problems.

Among various market entities, we need to pay special attention to small and medium -sized enterprises that account for 95%of the total number of enterprises.She said: "Small and medium -sized enterprises are an important pillar of economic development and the dependence of people's livelihood. They contribute 50%of national taxes, 60%of GDP, and 80%of employment. They are the most important source of toughness in the economy. Only help.Small and medium -sized enterprises have passed the epidemic difficulties and created a good market environment for them, so that the economy can rebound faster, and development will be more tough. "At the end of May, 50 of the economic recovery released by Shanghai will contain several for small and medium -sized enterprises.The rescue policy, such as: state -owned enterprises to reduce small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households for 6 months, support seamless renewal of small and medium -sized enterprises, and reduce the average wrapping and dedicated lines of small and medium -sized enterprises by 10%.Shen Kaiyan believes that although the "50" is very inspiring, it is a short -term plan after all. It is valid until the end of this year, and Shanghai needs a long -term economic revitalization plan.

Liberation Daily · Shangguan News Original manuscript, reprinting without permission

Author: Zai Fei

WeChat editor: nano

School counterpart: Ta Ni

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