Why does the Rabbit increase the "lower limit" of China's logistics?

Author ｜ Ye Jing

Edit ｜ Sang Mingqiang

The logistics industry, known as the "black continent", is called the "Black Continent". After getting rid of the barbaric and disorderly growth inertia, it is still a situation of fighting in the fight.

In 2005, as the confrontation between Taobao and EBAY gradually became hot, the rapid rise of local e -commerce companies made the express delivery industry grow in spring. Immediately afterwards, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda have access to the Tao system, so that in many years, the business volume of many courier players CAGR (average annual growth rate of compound annual growth) exceeds 30%. Looking back at China's express logistics for more than 40 years, from traditional storage and transportation to modern logistics system, from the leadership of state -owned enterprises to a large number of private enterprises entered the bureau, the "golden decade" of the domestic express delivery industry accompanied by the e -commerce economy with the e -commerce economy Hot and boiling.

The change of the change in the mobile Internet. Earlier, the players such as Sutaka and Youkuki gradually cleared. While the Tonglu system's "three links, one -way" was listed, the e -commerce giant began to explore its own logistics, time -effectiveware, e -commerce companies Pieces, franchise systems and self -employed systems, the market multi -polarization is inevitable. A set of data in 2019 shows that the domestic logistics express industry's revenue level increased more than 13 times compared with 10 years ago, but the user scale dividend also made the competition in this industry more confusing.

Therefore, we can see that after Zhongtong relying on the price advantage to reach the largest market share, other players also have the same learning, upholding the concept of "would rather be exhausted and starved to death", and continued to burn money to change money to change money to change money. The share has set off a round of price war. Of course, the impact of this situation on the industry is extremely violent. According to Tianyan check data, compared with the average annual cancellation of 60,000 or 70,000 courier logistics companies in China in the past two years, 128,000 in China last year. The continuous "price war" has led to too low dispatch fees, which not only causes severe damage to the courier group income, but long -term bleeding is the same as suicide operations.

Star -level player SF, in the first quarter of 2021, tore the real dilemma of the difficulty of making the courier industry and increasing quality -increasing quality -a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 989 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 209%. At the same time, players such as Shentong and Yunda are also trapped in the price of mud, and the market heard the sound. What everyone did not expect was that in the case of almost pessimism in the domestic express delivery industry, a rabbit that was not famous could break into it, and within 10 months, it reached the threshold of "average daily orders of 20 million". It took 16 years in the same number, and Yunda and Shentong spent 19 and 25 years respectively.

Just like its name, the rise of extremely rabbits is fast. After more than 1 year after the domestic network, it has completed the "e -commerce express network from 0 to 1" nationwide. It has become the Chinese express market in recent years The biggest "variable" in the background of homogeneity. Immediately after, after the industry in the industry that "1 yuan to the country" last year, the extremely rabbit also made up its own puzzles through mergers and acquisitions. According to relevant insiders, the overall industry rankings of the rookie platform ranked second. , Second to SF, at the same time, the price of the express delivery industry has rebounded, and the new inflection point has also appeared.

Some opinion believes that the birth and rise of extremely rabbits are not accidental. If it starts to start in Southeast Asia because of the differentiated competition in the service system, then the shift of the extremely rabbit will definitely originate from the China Express Industry. Essence Moreover, this is actually a good thing for the industry. It breaks the gradual rigid service and ecosystem, and also improves the "lower limit" of the logistics industry in China. Although the competitive attributes of the express delivery industry will not change in the short term, some trends are gradually becoming clear: the current express delivery industry must oppose "inner volumes" and build a better service system.

01 fake inner roll, really anti -roll

"The lower the barriers, the heavier the inner roll", which is particularly obvious in industries with severe homogeneity. However, in fact, the basic cost of the domestic logistics market is not low. In addition to the problems of transportation, we must also balance the labor costs and infrastructure construction consumption of the recipients and transit delivery. Especially for e -commerce, in order to set off the scale effect, only the further diluted cost can players achieve profitable production capacity, but in turn, in order to increase the business volume to compete for the market, it is necessary to choose in low prices and optimization services.

Enterprises are like prisoners trapped in the price. Pan Shuimiao, president of Yuantong Express Pan Shuimiao in an interview with the media in 2020, said: "The previous price war was the backward of the industry to obtain a higher share. One means, but the current price war is the leading person in the industry to initiate the initiative, which can accelerate the realization of industry differentiation and industry shuffling. "So that each round of price war has become an oligopoly. Since 2019, Guotong's suspension of work, Quanfeng termination of business, Youxukuka body, Ru Fengda, and Pinjun have left the market. Sixong, one Da and SF six have long -term food for more than 80%of the market share.

The extremely rabbit can be said to have fallen into the storm of the dispute at the beginning. It is precisely because of this that the extremely rabbit who has just entered the game was considered by the outside world to be crisis. Back to the life of this rabbit, born in Southeast Asia, just caught up with the local digital wave and ushered in the first wave of explosive growth. The founder Li Jie was born in the OPPO system, from specializing in OPPO products to expanding more business. He brought the experience of constructing the supply chain and service system to the extremely rabbit.

It is in the golden period of e -commerce logistics, but the market is very scattered. This is the biggest feature of the Southeast Asian market. This happens to be the most good at the rabbit ability item. In the fourth year, the cover of the seven Southeast Asian countries was completed in the fourth year. In an interview, Li Jie also sincerely bluntly stated: J & T's success is OPPO and Lucky. The source of the great rabbit company is drawn by the new eyes

This advantage was later continued to the country, so when it was made into a system, experienced and independent extremely rabbits, it naturally became the object of favored by players such as Pinduoduo. The lack of Pinduoduo in the logistics distribution system, the combination of the two formed a synergy effect of 1+1> 2.

The extremely rabbit seems to have some keen judgment, and it can always make some surprising decisions when the industry falls into the industry. In December last year, Best Group announced that it would transfer the domestic express delivery business to the Rabbit with 6.8 billion yuan. After the merger and reorganization The underlying facilities of the extremely rabbit are supplemented: a large number of mature offline outlets and key Amoy traffic, the franchisee system can be greatly expanded, and it has obtained tickets for the industry's first echelon.

In the domestic market, the strategy of extremely rabbits has also changed slowly. Previously, there were high -level rabbit high -level statements. "In the future, the key work is to integrate the two networks of extremely rabbits and Best, which is based on this." The continuous giving out of the outlets, the operating model of the extremely rabbit turned to "franchise network, direct management management", and slowly, joining the ecology became the core. According to relevant sources, in the process of getting the network, many first -level franchisees of extremely rabbits are "their own families" who are born from the OV system and accumulated capital. The task of extremely rabbit is to make "direct management" into a benchmark for franchise e -commerce express companies.

In the process of fighting entropy, the crazy rabbit was tearing off the low -end labels in the past. Not long ago, Ji Rabbit was rated as a 5A -level logistics enterprise. This is the most authoritative logistics enterprise level qualification assessment in China. At the same time, at the same time, in the "Chinese Entrepreneur" magazine, it promulgated the "2122 growth innovation companies in 2022. "On the list, the extremely rabbit also ranked first. This is a very obvious signal. The extremely rabbit is forging a new extremely rabbit. In fact, after the two networks are fused, the extremely rabbit has been adjusted internally. According to the appeal of the postal express industry issued by the State Post Office before the first two months this year See, the quality of the service quality is already in the middle and front end of the industry.

Main express enterprise appeal processing work evaluation form

In mid -June of this year, Ji Rabbit had held a large customer exchange meeting in Wuhan. At the meeting, it was disclosed that in May, the average daily votes of the Rabbit's entire network had exceeded 40 million, which was close to the profit and loss balance point. This means that throughout May, the business volume of the extremely rabbit completed more than 1.24 billion votes, and the same period of Shentong was 1.03 billion votes. Among them, it is worth mentioning that the rapid rise in the business volume of the rabbit is not based on the price war. According to the 21st Century Economic Herald, the price of a single ticket for the rabbit is currently in the middle, which is the same as Yuantong and Yunda, which is higher than Shentong.

02 How to Retire the Rucket Rabbit

At the end of February this year, Buffett specially praised the four major heroes who promoted the rise of the company at the annual shareholders' meeting: insurance, Apple, BNSF and BHE energy business. Among them, the current low -key transportation company BNSF is currently valued at about 160 billion US dollars, which is one of the most large -scale companies in Buffett's industry. It contributed more than $ 6 billion in net profit for Berkshire Hathaway last year alone.

As one of Buffett's most relying on the industry, logistics companies that serve as hubs have huge market value in the context of value exchange and commercial transmission in cities, villages, people, and people. Coincidentally, according to the "2021 Global Unicorn List" released by Hurun at the end of last year, the performance of logistics players is also very eye -catching. The extremely rabbit ranked 16th in the world with a valuation of 130 billion yuan and ranked second in the field of express logistics. Become a courier logistics company with a valuation of more than 100 billion yuan in Hetao Caincard Network.

When we review the financing process of the extremely rabbit, we found that in less than a year, the valuation of the Rabbit Express has increased rapidly, especially in the second half of last year. Traditional giants such as Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda are second only to the direct -operated system SF, JD.com, and Zhongtong.

Extreme rabbit financing process map source drawn by new eyes

Under normal circumstances, companies engaged in logistics supply chain are divided into five categories: comprehensive logistics services, professional logistics services, network logistics, supply chain business and financial services and logistics real estate services. According to industry analysts, the overall valuation of standardized and productized network logistics companies is higher than other types. For example, companies such as SF, Sanjin and One Da, provide prescribed routes and prescribed prices. When it is shipped to the consignee, after the network logistics forms a stable competition pattern, these companies often get a relatively high premium capacity.

On the other hand, although it starts from scratch in China, it cannot be ignored that the extremely rabbit is already the largest courier company in Southeast Asia before. There are two international sectors, so the real starting point of extremely rabbit valuation should be calculated from 2015.

On the one hand, with the booming development of e -commerce and logistics in Southeast Asia, domestic players also choose Southeast Asia as the first stop. The difference in the power of the destination country is that the difference in power of the extremely rabbit is to meet the trend needs of the domestic market Unicom and overseas. At the same time, mainstream e -commerce platforms such as Amazon, Lazada, TOKOPEDIA, and SHOPEE also have SHELN and TICTOK, which have started to cooperate with the starting shows, and have a differentiated advantage, and also have a certain increase in the valuation of the rabbit. On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, the extremely rabbits at the moment are overcome some weaknesses. According to insiders inside the logistics industry, after completing the integration of the two networks, the extremely rabbit has made up for its own infrastructure and network end construction. Board: The number of transfer centers increased from 74 before the integration to 85, and the operating site area expanded more than twice; the number of trunk lines increased from more than 1,500 before to more than 2100. There are also rising.

It is beyond doubt that the extremely rabbit is among the first echelon of domestic logistics. The current extremely rabbit is not the so -called "Pinduoduo Exclusive". From the special cooperation logistics of the Douyin New Year Festival last year to embedding the Ali system by acquiring the Best Express curve, an independent and diverse e -commerce platform partner. It is necessary to value the full necessary conditions of the value of the pole rabbit market. But if only through Southeast Asia and the domestic market, the 100 billion valuation of the Rabbit is still questionable. What many people do not know is that the valuation of the extremely rabbit is more than the domestic peers. Essence

Judging from the new market mentioned earlier, according to the "Late LatePost" report, the Rabbit has developed the three large population powers in Egypt, Brazil and Mexico in the Middle East and South America, as well as countries with higher per capita income of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The population volume exceeds 500 million, and the unit price and demand gap of the high customer make the rabbit easier to gain capital over the international logistics track.

In terms of regional expansion, from entering Indonesia and Malaysia in 2017, to 2018, the Philippines and Thailand are rooted. As a comprehensive logistics service company across domestic and foreign markets, the rabbit can always use domestic gameplay advantages, model advantages, scene advantages In conjunction with your own foreign network advantages, cultural advantages, and regional advantages to form organic complementarity. In this business model of "headquarters vertical management and regional high autonomy", let the Rabbit have a certain replication in developing emerging market economies.

In other words, the reorganization of the extremely rabbit cannot just look at the existing system, and its valuation source is not the advantage of limiting a single market, but is linked to its long -established capacity of domestic and foreign integration and development. There are also opinions that the reference of extremely rabbits in the future is not a player like SF or Zhongtong, but a super giant UPS with a market value of more than 100 billion US dollars.

Such a judgment comes from the current logistics network system of extremely rabbits. It operates more than 290 large transfer centers and more than 22,000 outlets around the world, with more than 350,000 service personnel. According to the incomplete statistics of the new eyes, as of now, the end express network of extremely rabbit has covered 13 countries, and the business scope of international logistics has spread to Asia, Europe, Africa, America, Oceania, etc.

Another point is actually from the organization. If the above layout and play are still available to a certain amount of replication and win the valuation by circling, then if you want to win the value preservation or even appreciate, you must rely on the company's rooting industry's determination, strong execution, and excellent corporate culture The latter is often more rare, just like Tongda can stand out from hundreds of express delivery, benefiting from the business gang culture of Tonglu people, the growth of extremely rabbits is inseparable from the strong execution of OV people.

03 and boundary issues discussion

In February of this year, the American logistics giant UPS announced that it is expected to achieve the revenue and profit margin target of 2023 in advance, and then its stock price will rise by 12%, and the market value once exceeds 200 billion US dollars. In contrast, another federal express FDX, its market value is still hovering by more than $ 50 billion. Even so, it also exceeds the sum of domestic SF, Shentong, Yuantong, and Yunda's market value.

However, a current status that is worth thinking is that no matter from the business volume or scale, the business of the Zhongtong alone is more than UPS, Federal Express and USPS. 95%.

The reason is that on the one hand, the domestic logistics industry starts late. The American logistics industry has a century of history, and the concept of domestic logistics has only been born for about 40 years, and the market value system has not reached effective consensus. In the 1990s, the American express industry has experienced two -year price war. Purolalator, EMERY and other companies have been out of the situation, and they have formed a pattern of UPS, Fedex, and USPS. So it is a pity that even if the scale of China's express delivery industry is now ranked first in the world, it has not been born international logistics giants like UPS, but this market opportunity is real.

For a long time, domestic head enterprises have been used to sacrifice their market share through price warfare, and forming a Matthew effect in the industry. However, with the gradual stall in China in recent years, after many price warfare, SMEs have cleared and headed by heads. For example, SF losses huge losses in the first quarter of last year. At the same time, the net profit of the three listed express delivery companies declined after the deduction of non -deduction. Until the concentration of the domestic express market CR6 exceeded 80%, a crack was opened in less than two years. The industry appeared. New changes. The question of "where the next increase will occur", this rabbit from Southeast Asia gave another answer. Parents will find that the shift strategy of extremely rabbits has accurately stepped on the general trend of the "two in and one out" in China's express delivery industry. In terms of Chinese express players want to go further, these three fields are the best "training grounds".

From the full coverage of the courier network in Indonesia in 2016, to determining the strategy of e -commerce express in the second year, the extremely rabbit quickly became a partner of the Southeast Asian head e -commerce platform (such as Shopee, Lazada, Tokopedia, etc.); It officially started in the country in 2020. It took 6 months to pave a national network, franchise network and direct management, so that the rabbit slowly formed the inside. The elimination mechanism of landscape expansion ".

As mentioned earlier, based on the expansion of domestic and outward expansion, the extremely rabbit has aimed at the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, and plans to operate in the network in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Mexico and other countries. Connect the two express express networks at home and abroad to help Chinese cross -border e -commerce and manufacturing companies go to sea, which is exactly the same as Fedex follows the US multinational enterprise to the world. The sense of direction of the extremely rabbit is very clear. To build a global logistics network in the existing era, express delivery is a key factor in the ceiling limit of the ceiling that can determine the ceiling of the domestic express giant.

International Comprehensive Logistics M & A Development Pier Pictures Source China Merchants Securities

In this context, complementing shortcomings naturally become the most effective decision. Earlier, Suning acquired Tiantian Express and SF acquisition of Kerry Logistics. After the Ji Rabbit collected Best last year, this large -scale interbank mergers and acquisitions were considered to continue to appear. China Merchants Securities pointed out that the mergers and acquisitions of international comprehensive logistics companies show obvious cycle characteristics. From the perspective of mergers and acquisitions, the development of the express delivery industry can be divided into four stages: starting, growth, concentration, and oligarch monopoly. Stage towards the fourth extreme process.

Taking UPS as an example, only local delivery services were provided in the early days of its establishment. Then, with a large acquisition in China, during the period of 1975-1990, the internationalization journey was opened and the UPS airline was established. Africa and the Pacific Pacific region; after that, UPS switched to the diversified M & A model, focusing on the enrichment of the supply chain logistics product segment and the opening of the upstream and downstream links of the supply chain, and eventually became a super in a comprehensive logistics service. Giant.

This is actually the new consensus of the industry and the underlying logic of extremely rabbit. In the past, SF Holdings announced its strategic adjustment to the public. Both rabbits are both inside and outside. According to the "21st Century Economy" report, some executives have revealed that the recent goal of the extremely rabbit is to tie the industry's first echelon. Force, continue to improve the ability of factions, automation levels, etc.

Chinese private express companies, whether SF, JD.com, Rabbit, or Dazhong, they follow the bonus of national policies and step on the wind wheels of e -commerce. Beautiful transcripts. In the new era, China will move from a large courier country to an advanced role of express delivery power. High -quality development and global competition will become the development background of all express companies. We look forward to and enjoy more "Chinese version of UPS" as soon as possible.

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